Hedge Intelligence

Commodity & FX Market Insights

Macro, fundamentals, positioning and technicals, integrated into one disciplined framework by Jagan Gopinath.

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Latest reports

cotton

macro

agriculture

ICE Cotton Futures: Bulls and Bears Contest for Directional Control

14 min

Rainflo retains its 76.11 – 82.50 cents per pound forecast range for December 2026 ICE Cotton futures, while elevated volatility raises the probability of temporary price extensions. This update reassesses deteriorating U.S. crop conditions, China’s strategic reserve sales and port inventories, India’s sowing recovery, the U.S. dollar, and crude oil’s impact on cotton demand.

015 Jul 2026

cotton

macro

agriculture

Cotton’s Next Move: Can El Niño’s Supply Threat Overcome the U.S. Dollar Headwind?

18 min

December cotton futures have broken above key resistance amid rising weather risks in the U.S., China, and India. This analysis examines how El Niño, global supply uncertainty, institutional positioning, and a strengthening U.S. dollar are shaping the outlook for cotton prices and risk management.

09 Jul 2026

us-dollar

forex

dxy

US Dollar Index Outlook: Can Treasury Inflows Offset BoJ Intervention Risk

7 min

Our previous DXY outlook accurately identified the recent resistance zone and key support dynamics. In this follow-up report, we examine how Treasury inflows, AI-related market volatility, resilient US economic data, and the growing risk of Bank of Japan intervention are reshaping the outlook for the US Dollar Index, with updated forecasts for the near, medium, and longer term.

01 Jul 2026

energy

brent-crude

oil

Brent Crude Oil – What Next After the US-Iran MoU?

6 min

Brent crude September futures (CBU26) have broken below the 200-day EMA at $81.31. Fresh short positioning has driven a 30% correction to $77. Rainflo’s models point to strong support in the $72.95–$74.54 range, backed by fundemental and technical reasons.

023 Jun 2026

gold

precious-metals

macro

technical-analysis

Understanding Gold Before Assessing its Price Outlook

8 min

Gold has fallen 25.73% since the onset of the West Asia conflict, challenging its traditional safe-haven status. We explore how de-dollarization, elevated real yields, central bank demand, and a strengthening US dollar are reshaping gold’s outlook across bull, base, and bear scenarios.

022 Jun 2026

us-dollar

forex

dxy

What Next For The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)?

9 min

DXY has rallied 3.64% off its 97.592 support since May, backed by fresh long positioning rather than short covering. We break down the near-term, medium-term and long-term drivers - from the Fed’s hawkish dot plot to the risk of BoJ intervention on the yen.

021 Jun 2026

Markets

Live prices

FXUSD / FX···Dollar index, major pairs, CFTC positioning and real-rate dynamics. Soft CommoditiesCotton···ICE markets, USDA supply/demand, physical and futures dynamics. Precious MetalsBullion···Gold and silver - central bank flows, real rates and the gold-silver ratio. EnergyEnergy···OPEC policy, supply/demand balances and crude price drivers. EquityEquity···Nifty, sectoral trends, FII/DII flows and macro context. MacroMacro CommentaryCentral banks, rates, growth, inflation and the cross-asset backdrop.